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Voting intentions of Kosovar Albanians in the run-up to Elections for Municipal Assemblies

Index Kosova, joint venture with BBSS Gallup International, conducted its first wave of the Media Measurement Survey in Kosovo (day-after-recall method). The survey took place from 4 to 10 October 2002 and covered 1,100 respondents, Kosovar Albanians. As part of the surveyed topics, respondents aged 18 years and over were asked also several questions on current political issues, among them about their willingness to vote and voting intentions.
The achieved sample is Kosovo-wide representative for the Albanian sub-set of population aged 15 years plus, whereas the results on voting intentions, gathered from interviewees eligible to vote, are based on a pool of 996 respondents.

The survey shows that 73% of respondents declare that it is very likely they will vote, 16% say that it is somewhat likely, 2% somewhat unlikely and 5% declare that it is very unlikely that they will vote on these elections. On the other hand, 4% of respondents still haven’t decided whether they will cast their vote or not.

Presented in the following table is the overall picture of the declared voters’ choices as measured Kosovo-wide.

When reviewed in terms of their basic demographic characteristics, the gender profile of voters of the three main parties shows slight differences. Thus, while the prospective constituencies of LDK and AAK parties tend to number more females than males (LDK = 46% males, 54% females and AAK = 43.5% males, 56.5% females), the PDK followers seem marginally more likely to be found among males (55% males, 45% females).
It should be noted, however, that the above results record the general proportions of voting preferences Kosovo-wide and that the regional specifics as well as the political affiliations of other ethnic groups will certainly affect the voting outcome in individual municipalities.

Having said that, presented below is the picture the voting preferences as recorded in the Prishtina municipality.

As the graph shows, the number of undecided Albanian voters in Prishtina is greater than the one recorded for Kosovo as a whole. And again, the participation of other ethnic groups and their voting preferences will certainly influence the final election outcome in the municipality, although the proportions of the biggest Albanian parties are expected to remain the same.


INDEX KOSOVA LTD.
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