October, 2001

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WHICH PARTY WILL WIN ?

As we are getting closer to the election day on 17th November for the Kosova Assembly, the mood of citizens of Kosova is changing and their opinion is getting clearer, and probably their intention on which party will they vote for as well. Obviously, the pre-electoral campaign will begin any day now and the Kosovar opinion will have the chance to learn more about the programmes of each political party that will take part in the elections. Although there is always a great possibility, that anything can change in voters' decision until the very day of elections, the results of Index Kosova, joint venture with BBSS Gallup International, can help reflect the mood of citizens on which party will win the 17th November elections.

The survey was conducted from 23-28th September across whole Kosova covered 1,000 Kosovar Albanian citizens, aged 18+ years. The survey was concluded based on multi-staged stratified method, whereby the sample was representative for Albanian population of Kosova.

Compared to the previous month, the opinion of Kosovar citizens on which party will come out victorious on November election has changed significantly. LDK has marked a high increase from 48.7% in August to 54.4% in September. AAK* has also marked a great change, but in decreasing its percentage from 4.9% in August to 2.9% in September, while PDK has kept a constant increasing trend since July (13.2% in July, 14.2% in August), taking 14.9% in September.

The number of those who refuse to answer the question "Which party do you think is going to win on general elections in November?" is kept almost the same as in the last month, although there is a small decrease from 2.8% in August to 2.5% in September. On the other hand, the number of those who answer "Don't know" has decreased more from August to September (28.6% in August, 24.6% in September), showing that Kosovar citizens have a clearer opinion on which political party will win the parliamentary elections in November.

* Data on AAK are aggregate rating points of AAK as a party and AAK as a coalition.

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