January, 2002

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In the Americas, despite the events of September 11th, the United States remains optimistic, with 52% feeling that 2002 will be better than 2001, only outscored by the Canadians (54%). In the Pacific Rim, opinions vary - 65% of those in New Zealand and 53% of Australians are optimistic that 2002 will be better than 2001, but 50% of Hong Kong citizens, 43% of those in the Philippines and even 38% of the Japanese are pessimistic about the coming year. In India and Pakistan, where fieldwork was conducted before the current tensions, there are more optimists (34% India, 43% Pakistan) than pessimists (23% and 29% respectively). In Africa, although Presidential Elections are promised, 86% of Zimbabweans see no cause for optimism for 2002. Indeed, only in Cameroon do optimists outrank pessimists of the four African countries included in the survey. Kosova last year and now Kosova again took the first place among almost 70 countries across the world, as the most optimistic country in the world. But, when comparing the optimism of Kosovar Albanians from the end of year 2000 with the end of year 2001, this reveals that Albanians are less optimistic than one year before. Looks like Kosovar Albanians were more optimistic in the wake of local elections in 2000 than after general elections in 2001 (the End of Year Poll 2000 was conducted in November that year). The level of optimism among Kosovar Albanians for the coming year is 83%, while this level for the last year was 89%, which means that Albanians were more optimistic for 2001 than for 2002. The fall of optimism is unveiled from other results as well, like people's opinion on economic development, unemployment, chances of employment, strikes and international conflicts, etc. When Albanian citizens were asked about the economic development for 2001, 72% said that this year would be a year of economic prosperity. Today, this opinion has changed, with 64% feeling that 2002 will be a year of economic prosperity. Even when speaking about the opinion towards unemployment, things have changed compared to a year before. People feel more pessimistic related to the decrease of unemployment. This year there are more people than last year who think that unemployment is increasing. One year before, 15% of interviewed declared that unemployment will increase a lot in 2001, while today this percentage has increased to 19% for 2002. One year before, 40% have said that unemployment will fall slightly, while now 33% of interviewed think this way. This fall of optimism related to the decrease of unemployment can be linked to results on the level of unemployment. In the end of year 2000, 72% of interviewed declared they are unemployed, while in the end of year 2001 this percentage has reached to 76%. Number of those employed full-time has decreased from 24% to 19% compared to one year before. The risk of becoming jobless has also increased compared to one year before. One year before, out of those that are employed, 54% said that their job is safe, and today this percentage has fallen to 47%. On the other hand, chances of unemployment have increased from 43% to 50% compared to last year. One year before, 32% have declared that they could find a new job quickly, and now only 21% chose this option. Chances for strikes and industrial conflicts in Kosova have also increased compared to one year before. From the results of End of Year Poll 2001, one fourth of respondents think that strikes and industrial conflicts will increase, while this percentage was 18% one year before. In question "Do you think that 2002 will be a peaceful year more or less free of international dispute, a troubled year with much international discord or remain the same?" 40% of interviewed think that 2002 will be free of dispute. One year before, the optimism among Albanian citizens of Kosova was evidently higher (55%). Kosova and the region Kosova as the most optimistic country in the world, compared to other countries in the region, Albania, Macedonia and Yugoslavia, is more optimistic in general. After Kosova, the second most optimistic country in the region is Macedonia (48%), than Yugoslavia (46%) and Albania, as the most pessimistic country in the region (29%). As for the optimism for the economic development, Kosova again takes the first place in the region. While in Kosova 64% of respondents think that 2002 will be a year of economic prosperity, citizens of other countries in the region are less optimistic, and in some countries even more pessimistic. Only 18% of citizens of Albania think that this year will be a year of economic prosperity, while more than half of them think that the economic situation will remain the same. In Macedonia, while 28% of respondents feel optimistic for the economic development, almost half of them think that 2002 will be a year economic difficulty. In Yugoslavia, opinions are more homogenous, where there are no great differences between those who are optimists, pessimists and neutral about the economic situation. Although, as the data reveal, Kosova has the highest number of unemployed in the region (76% Kosova, 63% Albania, 64% Macedonia and 42% Yugoslavia), Kosovar Albanians are more optimistic related to the decrease of unemployment. While in Yugoslavia only 13%, in Albania 21% and in Macedonia 25% of respondents think that unemployment will fall in 2002, in Kosova this percentage is much higher (45%). The job safety of those that work is the highest in Albania, than in Kosova, in Macedonia and at last in Yugoslavia. Chances of becoming unemployed are highest in Kosova and in Macedonia, then in Albania and in Yugoslavia. Seems like, based on the End of Year Poll results, chances of finding a new job are highest in Yugoslavia (48%), while in other countries this possibility is considered to be lower (21% in Kosova, 20% in Macedonia and 15% in Albania). In Kosova and Albania chances for strikes and industrial conflicts to be increased in 2002 are lower, while in Macedonia and Yugoslavia half of interviewed feel that the coming year will be with more strikes and industrial conflicts. As far as the international peace and stability is concerned, Kosova is again the most optimistic country in the region, with 40% thinking that 2002 will be free of dispute. On the other hand, the situation is different in other countries. While in Kosova, only 16% of interviewed feel that this year will be a troubled year, 29% in Albania, 40% in Yugoslavia and 41% of interviewed in Macedonia think this way. For more information, please contact: INDEX KOSOVA LTD. Address:Mostari 15/4, Prishtina Tel/fax: 21713, 044 136563 E-mail: office@indexkosova.com