Voting Intentions and Perceived Elections’ Outcome as of August 2001

Following on previous publications about the opinion of Kosovar constituency, Index Kosova, joint venture with BBSS GALLUP International, posed in its recent public opinion poll conducted in August two questions about the general election for Kosova Assembly to be held in November this year. One of the questions is supposed to measure the trend about people’s perceptions of the outcome of elections, while the other is about to show their actual voting intentions and party affiliation, registering their projected vote in the run up to the elections on 17th November. The survey was conducted from 16th till 24th August across whole Kosova and covered 1,000 Kosovar Albanian citizens, aged 18+ years. The survey was concluded based on multi-staged stratified method, whereby the sample was representative for Albanian population of Kosova. Perceived election’s results

Answers to question “Which party do you think is going to win on general elections in November?” show perceptions of respondents as registered at the time of the survey. As seen in the table above, projected outcome of the voting process varies from month to month. At present, 48,7% of respondents presume that LDK is likely to win the general elections in November, another 14,2% are of opinion that the winning party is going to be PDK, while those giving first place to AAK* record 4,9% of the surveyed universe. The percentage of people who think that LDK is likely to take majority of seats in the Assembly registers modest decrease as compared to previous two months. PDK, for its part, marks slight increase, but only when reviewed against the rating from a month ago, while AAK regains slightly better, getting back the confidence of 2% of population. In July the proportion of would-be undecided voters stood at 30,4%, whereas in August the respondents who resort to “Don’t know” answer register 28,6% of the universe. Which party would you vote for?

Responses to question “When the Kosovo Assembly elections are held in November, which party or coalition would you vote for?” reveal actual intentions of constituents about their voting will in the general elections. According to these results, 46.4% of interviewees currently state that they would vote for LDK, 22% for PDK, and further 8,9% for AAK*. Refusals to this question rate at 9,2% and the percentage of those who still do not know which party they would vote for amounts to 10,4%. * Data on AAK in both graphs are aggregate rating points of AAK as a party and AAK as a coalition.