June, 2006

Kliko k ëtu për Verzionin Shqip

After changes of the beginning of this year in the political scene in Kosova, including here changes in the Kosova Government and Assembly, recently there are significant changes in the opinions of citizens with regard to important issues in the country, such as the most important problem in Kosova, trust in institutions, approval of leaders, talks with Serbia, voting intentions, etc.

Most Important Problem in Kosova today

The survey results indicate a major increase of the figure for the problem of unemployment and a major fall for the problem of undefined status. After to waves of equality between these to problems, seems like unemployment is again becoming the primary concern of the citizen. Talks in the final status of Kosova have already began and looks like citizens have left this concern to the negotiating team, whereas unemployment again becomes a major concern for the citizens.

Approval of Leaders and Personalities

May 2006 shows a significant falling trend of approval of political public figures. The dynamics of talks on final status of Kosova, conflicts and disagreements within political parties, as well as the delay in solving the problems of welfare and living standard of citizens may have affected the fall of rating of political leaders in the opinions of Kosovan citizens. The head of Kosova Assembly Berisha, whose rating was not measured earlier, is positions in the middle.

Trust in Institutions

As in the case of leaders, there is a falling trend of trust in institutions as well. Even KPC and KPS that are always on top of trusted institutions have suffered a small fall. The decrease of trust is more emphasized for political parties, assembly, presidents of municipalities, and especially for UNMIK Police, that has had a low trust since the start of arrests of ex-UÇK leaders. The Kosova negotiating team, whose trust was not measured in the past surveys, enjoys a relatively high level of trust, this way being trusted far more than the parties, assembly, courts, presidents of municipalities, etc.

Approval of talks with Serbia on technical issues

The survey shows that the level of support for talks on technical issues is still high, but compared to the previous survey there is a fall in this support. The dynamics of these talks is very slow and until now without any concrete results, particularly for families with missing members.

Approval of talks with Serbia on final status of Kosova

In spite of the relatively high level of trust in the negotiating team, the level of support for talks with Serbia on the final status of Kosova is also decreasing and there is a trend of increase of opposition against these talks. It seems like people do not feel so much optimistic that the talks will be successful, firstly baring in mind the diametrically different stands of negotiating teams from Prishtina and Belgrade, as well as the option of imposition of the resolution of the status from the Security Council of the UN, in case of unsuccessful agreement between Kosova and Serbia.

What should be the final status of Kosova

The opinions of citizens remain unchanged with regard to the form of the final status of Kosova. Kosova an independent state within its current borders is the “un-negotiable” option for the absolute majority of respondents. The other option “unification with Albania” is supported by 9% of respondents.

Probable reactions if Kosova does not become independent within its current borders

	Aug. 2005	Nov. 2005	Feb. 2006	May. 2006
Support political parties or groups that promise to address the problem	35%	32%	32%	35%
Engage in peaceful demonstrations	22%	21%	17%	21%
Engage in violent opposition	6%	9%	6%	10%
Talk with family and friends about this	13%	12%	12%	10%
Do nothing	9%	9%	10%	9%
Would provide assistance to those engaged in violent opposition	5%	6%	4%	5%
I would leave Kosovo	4%	3%	2%	3%

The results of this survey indicate that the activism of citizens in case if Kosova does not become independent would take a radical form. While in February around 11% of respondents warned for violent actions, in May this mass reaches 15% (10% violent opposition and 5% assisting those who oppose with violence)

Voting Intentions

LDK = 42.7%

PDK = 19.3%

AAK = 10.9%

ORA = 2.7%

Refused = 4.9%

Don’t know = 9.7%

Although the political scene has changed a lot, after the death of ex-President Rugova and dismissal/resignation of the ex-head of the Assembly and the ex-Prime Minister, the electoral troop does not seem to have changed much. Previous proportions between main political parties remain more or less the same. A small fall of support for LDK in the past couple of months can be explained with the fact of factions in the head of the party, however LDK remains the party with the highest support, maybe not with the merit of its leaders but of its voters who do not like to see factions. The survey was conducted in the field in the last week of May (23-29 May) and the survey covered Albanian and non-Serb minorities in Kosova. The selected sample is representative of the Kosova population aged 15+ years. Questions on media were posed to all respondenti (1,104 respondents, margin of error ±2.9%), whereas questions on political issues were posed only to respondenti aged 18+ years (1,020 respondents, margin of error ±3.1%)